It’s that time of the year again.
For the 29 teams that don’t win a championship, the offseason brings many questions. And unfortunately, with the Bucks back among them, so comes clamoring for the front office to upgrade the roster.
The free agency frenzy may be coming to a close, but unless you’re the 2010 Heat or 2016 Warriors, the real improvements come during trade season. There’s something especially tantalizing about trades; the chance to tweak a team with fresh faces, all to solve the ultimate jigsaw puzzle, is fun. And for contenders, it brings hope; maybe a chance to flip the odds.
A team like Milwaukee knows this more than most; in their championship season, they made 2 key moves. They upgraded at the PG position, sending Eric Bledsoe and George Hill away for an all-star caliber Jrue Holiday. Later on, they exchanged their DJ’s (Augustin as a free agent miss, Wilson as a failed project that deserved new pastures), into a PJ; vet PJ Tucker. These trades were the final touches to building a formidable defensive core, and likely made the difference between having a title and not.
In 2022, ideas have ranged from warranted to delusional. The 2nd George Hill experiment has failed spectacularly, and sending him to any willing suitor for a rotational piece is objectively ideal. On the other end of the spectrum, a sector of fans will not be satisfied unless the Bucks somehow miraculously swap Khris and/or Jrue for Kevin Durant.
So, what about cases in the gray area, between the extremes?
Brook Lopez is 34 years old, and coming off of back surgery. He missed 69 games this season, leaving a hole in the Bucks frontcourt after opening night, and not returning to fill it until mid-March. For the Bucks, all priority turned to replacing his production for the bulk of the season. They tried many different things, none to much avail.
They inserted Bobby Portis into the Brook role, but the fit was off. They added Boogie Cousins to eat up center minutes, but he failed to replicate Lopez’s two-way presence. Eventually, they threw all the chips in on an answer, giving up assets for Serge Ibaka at the deadline. On paper, it seemed perfect; the Bucks added a rim protector that could also space the floor, only 3 years removed from playing a similar role on a vaunted Raptors championship squad. But, for one reason or another, it didn’t translate.
As the Bucks defense plummeted to 14th (down from 9th/1st/1st respectively in the last 3 seasons with a healthy Brook), this tumultuous ride set up a dilemma. The Bucks clearly needed Brook to succeed, particularly on the defensive end. However, running it back with him means risking a repeat of this season, where the very real possibility of an extended absence (and no backup plan) would become detrimental. The best path seems to lie in finding an identical replacement, but who could actually replace Brook? As the Bucks crudely found out in the Ibaka trade, not just anybody could enter the lineup and carry out all of Brook’s responsibilities without skipping a beat.
Some believed an answer lie in the draft, with a player like Walker Kessler, or EJ Lindell. Anyone here would be young enough to be molded into the perfect Brook replacement, potentially becoming a long-term answer. But, the Bucks chose to fill a different need at pick 24.
A name that Bucks fans have floated around for over a year is Mo Bamba. While carrying some flaws, he shot at an above average 3pt clip, showed some potential to rim protect, and like a draft pick, was young enough to still be developed. But again, all points became mute when he was extended by Orlando, at least until he can be traded again in 6 months.
Then there’s Myles Turner. On paper, the idea of Myles Turner manning the Bucks drop coverage sounds like a dream. He already does so in Indiana, establishing himself as one of the better defenders in the league. Like Brook, Turner can space the floor, and shoot productively from beyond the arc on high volume. The raw numbers are identical if not better, averaging 13 points/7 rebounds, and an astounding 3 blocks per game. Best part? He’s 8 years younger.
The Bucks lack assets, but even then, the price could be attainable. The Pacers have aimed to deal him for a while, as he doesn’t fit their timeline. So, what’s the hold up?
Based on salary balancing and roster construction, the Bucks would almost certainly have to send back Lopez. The Bucks sending away the last remnants of their draft capital is already one thing, but gambling away Brook too?
It depends on how you view Brook. He is someone that perfectly compliments Giannis (for that matter Mike Budeholzer’s defensive scheme too), and can occasionally be a star some nights, but seeing him as only that lacks nuance. He carries out so much of the dirty work for the Bucks, and does it so efficiently, that it ensures the team runs like a well-oiled machine. One that, as seen this season, falls apart without him.
No game demonstrated his impact on the floor like game 1 of this year’s Boston series. Typically, 6 points/10 rebounds on negative efficiency would be far from an MVP performance. But among other things, he dominated the glass, contested shots, intimidated the Celtics out of the paint (eventually forcing them to settle for 50 threes), and set up open shots as a decoy on offense. The Bucks convincingly won a game where they shot poorly, in a large part thanks to Lopez.
That was one of many games the Bucks won on the backs of their defense since Brook came to Milwaukee 4 years ago. Coming off surgery of his back, he helped anchor the team to the best playoff defense in 2022. In these 4 seasons, playoff opponents have collectively experienced their oRTG drop by 8.2 from the regular season, the largest in that period in NBA history. Giannis continued to grow into an all-time great in that stretch, but Brook carried a large part in establishing a defensive identity. As long as the duo remains, they 100% will remain not just a proven contender, but the premier frontcourt of the era.
Players like Turner or Bamba seem to fit the prototype needed on the surface, but the role is complex. Whether they could complete all the responsibilities required to cog the team as a Bucks starting 5 (while meanwhile not getting in the way) is far from a guarantee.
If they end up fitting the role, much like a recent Warriors team that traded for Andrew Wiggins, the magic could be sustained for an extended period. If not, it may wind up becoming a self-inflicted wound that, much like a recent Lakers team that dismantled their wing depth for Russell Westbrook, propels them out of the highest tier of championship contention.
When he’s seen enough in someone, Jon Horst has been willing to roll the dice in the past. Only time will tell what decision would maximize the Bucks’ title window.
…
November 2, 2021. The Bucks are 3-4 to start their championship defense. Following a signature win on opening night to the championship favorite Nets, expectations were to capitalize on the momentum and dominate the conference from the gate. That hasn’t happened, and the cracks are starting to show. Jrue Holiday is out after tweaking his ankle, and just yesterday, Khris Middleton entered health and safety protocols with covid.
To fill their hole for tonight’s game against Detroit, Milwaukee inserts George Hill and Thanasis respectively into the lineup. From the bench, Justin Robinson, Jordan Nwora, Semi Ojeleye, and Rodney Hood are all counted upon to eat up minutes.
There aren’t many must-wins in the NBA regular season, but on a 3-game losing streak and clinging to hold firm in the first month, this feels as close to one of them as can get. Even with 2/3 of teams playing postseason basketball, continuous sliding could mean a season of trying to catch-up in the standings. And, it will come down to this team, a 1999 Bulls-esque cast of characters to get it done. One nearly unrecognizable from the rotation that took center stage at the NBA Finals last July.
Except one pillar remains (well two, Bobby Portis recently came back from an injury of his own). That is Giannis Antetokounmpo, the franchise savior, the knight in shining armor, the reigning FMVP. Our superstar.
As he does, he takes over the game on both ends, registering 28 points next to 8 rebounds, 9 assists, and 4 blocks. His ability eclipses that of anyone else on the floor that night, and the Bucks win convincingly. The team stays afloat.
After the game, the story isn’t about him. It isn’t even about the 2 all-star teammates he played without. Instead, looking back on the injuries that have made life difficult to start the year, Giannis mentions his running mate in the paint: "We have to appreciate Brook, what he does for us. I always talk about Brook, people are going to think I'm in love with him..appreciate your teammates. Sometimes he doesn't block the shot but they're scared of him. He's boxing out. I appreciate Brook."
For now at least, maybe we should just appreciate Brook.
